The US Election
With the election of Donald Trump, we have seen the biggest shock to US politics in 70 years. Trump was given only a slim chance of victory. He had no previous experience as a public servant and few detailed policy positions. His nomination by the Republican Party came against the preferences of American big business. He alienated most leaders of his own party by making outrageous statements about minorities and women. And he had paid little attention to political organisation and had not performed particularly well in the presidential debates and yet, somehow, he pulled off an improbable victory, with wins in the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan proving decisive. His victory has exposed deep divisions in American society, galvanised anti-establishment sentiments and injected a great deal of policy uncertainty at home and abroad. Here, let us have a look at what could happen to Indo-US relations under Donald Trump.
What India stands to gain:
What India stands to gain:
- Terrorism : Trump has vowed to defeat and eradicate radical Islamic terrorism and also pledged to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism. His hard stance on terrorism could also result into deeper Indo-US defence and strategic ties.
- Defence Deal : Trump has vowed to contain (surround) china over south china issue; stealing millions of jobs etc. this may give ray of hope that INDO-US may share crucial security/INTEL details and may sign multi-billion defence deals.
- Climate change : He called Paris summit for global warming as hoax and planned to cancel US agreements and get out of such deals. This may help India to renegotiate over Carbon emission measures.
- Entrepreneurs & Students : Although Trump wants to put stricter immigration rules, he also says he wants to woo Indian entrepreneurs and students to the US.
- China : Trump criticised China throughout his campaign, described it as one of the US's top adversaries. That could make for an advantage to India.
- Oil : Trump, in his poll promises, also vowed to unleash America’s shale oil, natural gas and coal reserves to make U.S energy self-sufficient. He has plans to open onshore and offshore leasing on federal lands and lift the moratorium on coal leasing. India, which is dependent on Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) when it comes paying a price for oil, will benefit as opening up of the US oil sector will lead to price stability globally. ONGC will be able to expand operations globally.
What India stands to lose:
- Trade Policies :Trump’s 'hawkish' trade policy of 'America first' and his plans to renegotiate all foreign trade deals will affect trade treaties with India, too.
- Tax : Trump's promise to reduce the US corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 15 per cent could result in companies like Ford, GM and Microsoft rushing back to the US. This rush of US firms will hit Modi's Make in India push.
- Immigration : Trump expects to curb both legal and illegal immigration. Here, come in the H-1B visa which is extremely important to the Indian software industry. Trump however, was quoted as saying that he would want to scrap this visa. The removal of this visa will have a disastrous effect on the Indian software companies send some of their staff to work on-site with their clients in the U.S. through the H-1B visas.